I decided that I would give Cassel and Orton supporters some numbers for what would be required to expect a Super Bowl season with Cassel or Orton at the helm. I did some number crunching of the numbers SB QB's put up on avg all the way back to 2000 during the regular season (so that does mean Trent Dilfer's cruddy numbers factor in) and compare them to Cassel and Orton. Not suprisingly, our chances are not great. One thing to note here is that these do not include playoff stats. These are more of an indication of how the QBs will need to perform during the season to be likely to make the Super Bowl. via sportsandrec.files.wordpress.com
| GP | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | FUM | RAT | ||
| Avg SB QB | 15.2 | 311.9 | 490.8 | 63.3 | 3773.6 | 7.7 | 26.3 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 93.7 | |
| Avg Cassel: | 0.2 | -25.2 | -4.5 | -4.4 | -529.3 | -1.0 | -5.0 | -1.1 | -1.8 | -9.5 | |
| Avg Orton: | -0.5 | -11.5 | 10.5 | -3.5 | -298.0 | -0.7 | -6.7 | -1.5 | -3.5 | -9.0 | |
| Best Cassel: | -0.2 | -49.9 | -40.8 | -5.1 | -657.6 | -0.7 | 0.7 | -5.5 | -3.8 | -0.6 | |
| Best Orton: | 0.8 | 24.1 | 50.2 | -1.2 | 28.4 | -0.6 | -5.3 | -0.5 | -2.8 | -6.8 |
I used Cassel and Orton's 3 best years for their averages.
Cassel
| GP | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | AVG | TD | LNG | INT | FUM | RAT |
| 15.3 | 286.67 | 486.33 | 58.87 | 3244.33 | 6.67 | 21.33 | 70.7 | 11.33 | 4 | 84.1 |
Orton
| GP | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | AVG | TD | LNG | INT | FUM | RAT |
| 14.67 | 300.33 | 501.33 | 59.80 | 3475.67 | 6.92 | 19.67 | 74.33 | 11.00 | 2.33 | 84.63 |
The hardest thing working against Cassel and Orton is the tradeoff between yds/qb rating. The more yards they each throw, the worse their QB rating is, meaning that the more they are leaned on, the more frequently they make mistakes. Can we really expect to win at the end of close games if we have to lean on one of these two?
Both have comparative stats in their best years to the average SB QBs but aren't quite there. If I were a betting man, I would say that they are unlikely to match or surpass their best years again. They're both pretty much developed into the QBs they will be the rest of their careers at 29. History says they won't unless they pull an Eli (although his arm strength gives him a much higher ceiling).
Let's cover the low end of the spectrum for SB QB play. Here are the regular season stats of the SB QBs worse than that of the average Cassel and Orton. Stats from ESPN
| SEASON | TEAM | GP | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | FUM | RAT | |
| Eli | 2007 | NYG | 16 | 297 | 529 | 56.1 | 3336 | 6.31 | 23 | 20 | 9 | 73.9 |
| Dilfer | 2000 | BAL | 11 | 134 | 226 | 59.3 | 1502 | 6.65 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 76.6 |
| Grossman | 2006 | CHI | 16 | 262 | 480 | 54.6 | 3193 | 6.65 | 23 | 20 | 5 | 73.9 |
| Collins | 2000 | NYG | 16 | 311 | 529 | 58.8 | 3610 | 6.82 | 22 | 13 | 5 | 83.1 |
| Delhomme | 2003 | CAR | 16 | 266 | 449 | 59.2 | 3219 | 7.17 | 19 | 16 | 8 | 80.6 |
| Ben | 2008 | PIT | 16 | 281 | 469 | 59.9 | 3301 | 7.04 | 17 | 15 | 10 | 80.1 |
Let's look at the teams around them. Stats from http://www.pro-football-reference.com
Here are the avg stats for the defenses behind these QBs in the regular season.
| Passing | Rushing | ||||||||||||||
| Team Defense | Pts | Yds | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | NY/A | 1stD | Att | Yds | TD | Y/A | 1stD | TO |
| Avg: | 257 | 4436.5 | 309 | 545 | 3055.7 | 17.8 | 20 | 5.2 | 162 | 392.3 | 1381 | 8 | 4 | 73 | 34 |
| Avg Lg Rank: | 6.17 | 4.6667 | 0 | 21 | 9.3333 | 10.5 | 9 | 5.8 | 0 | 5.667 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
As you can see, these SB QBs with less than admirable stats had defenses and a running game to counter their QB's flaws just looking at their regular season stats. Four of these QBs had top 5 defenses behind them. In the cases of the non top 5 regular season defenses, The Giants and Panthers (Panthers were top 10 and Giants top 15) played like #1 ranked defenses in the playoffs. The Giants stuffed the run and created 8 turnovers on the way to the Super Bowl in 2007. The Panthers defense created 10 turnovers in 4 games in 2003.
Now let's look at the possibility of an average to good year from Cassel and Orton. Believe it or not, the most similar year by a QB is 2004 Tom Brady.
| GP | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | AVG | TD | LNG | INT | FUM | RAT |
| 16 | 288 | 474 | 60.8 | 3,692 | 7.79 | 28 | 50 | 14 | 5 | 92.6 |
And the team around him
| Passing | Rushing | ||||||||||||||
| Pts | Yds | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | NY/A | 1stD | Att | Yds | TD | Y/A | 1stD | TO | |
| Team Offense | 437 | 5722 | 293 | 485 | 3588 | 29 | 14 | 7 | 193 | 524 | 2134 | 15 | 4.1 | 120 | 27 |
| Team Defense | 260 | 4972 | 315 | 538 | 3400 | 18 | 20 | 5.8 | 177 | 405 | 1572 | 9 | 3.9 | 83 | 36 |
| Lg Rank Off | 4 | 7 | 22 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 14 | |||
| Lg Rank Def | 2 | 9 | 26 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 3 | |||
The increase in QB play did allow for a less dominating defense. Still, the defense was a top 5 defense (due to its ability to stop scoring and the running game). I saw similar results with the 2003 Tom Brady and Patriots defense.
Alright now let's look at what this means the Chiefs will need to happen in the regular season to compete for a Super Bowl.
Chief's 2011 Team
| Passing | Rushing | ||||||||||||||
| Pts | Yds | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | NY/A | 1stD | Att | Yds | TD | Y/A | 1stD | TO | |
| Team Offense | 212 | 4973 | 299 | 500 | 3080 | 13 | 18 | 5.8 | 163 | 487 | 1893 | 5 | 3.9 | 89 | 28 |
| Team Defense | 338 | 5333 | 257 | 454 | 3221 | 23 | 20 | 6.7 | 169 | 508 | 2112 | 14 | 4.2 | 96 | 26 |
| Lg Rank Off | 31 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 30 | 23 | 24 | 5 | 15 | 30 | 28 | 21 | |||
| Lg Rank Def | 12 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 24 | 29 | 26 | 20 | 14 | 13 | |||
With Cassel/Orton, the defense's numbers have to jump to around the top 5 range. The QB has to have one of his best years. The running game has to improve (that's almost a given).
With the return of Charles, the running game should be right on par with SB caliber. That leaves defense and QB. For defense, we have to hit on a NT(at the least) and then possibly an ILB and DE if we want it to be SB caliber. Can we win a SB with Cassel/Orton? Yes. But, lot has to go right in the regular season (not even considering how the team has to play in the playoffs too).
Looking into the numbers for the best SB QBs, I found that some have top defenses while others don't. The trend is that, the better the QB, the more cushion the defense has(2009 New Orleans Saints).To consistently compete for the SB instead of hoping for the perfect year, we need an upgrade at QB. When will we get this QB? Hopefully, sooner rather than later. How much will we have to sacrifice? Who will it be?
via blogs.ajc.com, via a.espncdn.com
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
2 recs | 59 comments
You had me till the RG3 pic
Who is the biggest boom or bust prospect this year. Bottom line, you have to have the franchise QB to win a SB. Maybe not to get to 1 , but definatey to win 1
saints_chiefsfan1979 - February 15, 2012
so ...
Dilfer’s a Franchise QB? Plunkett? come on …
upamtn - February 15, 2012
Plunkett won 2 I think it is time he got some credit
As far as Dilfer goes, I know that is the 1 guy that people bring up to try to disprove the whole notion of needing a franchise QB. But you have to remember , that was over 10 years ago. Times have changed since then. Besides, if you remember that team was going nowhere with Tony Banks at the helm. Dilfer came in and the offense looked at least better than it had. Dilfer had the worst statistics of any QB to win the SB, that is true. But then again, people forget that he only started 8 games that year. Who knows what he could have done with a full season. Oh and having the greatest defense of all time and Jamal Lewis and Priest Holme in the same backfield doesn’t hurt either
saints_chiefsfan1979 - February 15, 2012
oh, so defense DOES make a difference! why yes ... yes it does! and ours is looking like a Top 5 Defense, meaning ... well, you can figure it out :-)
this year you can look at the Texans (had Schaub not been hurt), the Ravens, the Niners, the Broncos (I mean really, Defense is ALL they had!) as examples of how far a very good Defense can take a team
upamtn - February 15, 2012
This is were someone comes in and mentioned the lowly defenses of the Giants and Pats...
Then after that is where we remind them that those same Defenses stepped up when it counted, and weren’t really that bad…
Then after that someone will say Start Stanzi, he is the one!….
Afterwards somebody else will say…. nm….
I need a drink…
Hateraide - February 15, 2012
You lost me at "this" : )
TheScreenName - February 15, 2012
I lost myself a long time ago :P
Hateraide - February 15, 2012
Hate when that happens
TheScreenName - February 15, 2012
Me too, but I generally hate most things.
Hateraide - February 15, 2012
Hence the name?
TheScreenName - February 15, 2012
Yup ;)
Hateraide - February 15, 2012
But none of those teams won the big 1
because they lack the QB
saints_chiefsfan1979 - February 15, 2012
It looks like a SB caliber QB can carry a team to SB .......
as long as you have a SB caliber Defense to neutralize the opponents SB caliber QB.
CatChief - February 16, 2012
Better get Luck, then
Except we can’t. So what do we do, curl into a ball and cry?
MNchiefsfan - February 15, 2012
That's my plan
Hateraide - February 15, 2012
Make sure to hydrate
Or you’ll dry up like a raisin
MNchiefsfan - February 15, 2012
Good call
Hydration is key for being a Chiefs and a (gasp) Royals fan.
Hateraide - February 15, 2012
sadly
I don’t think you are far off from the truth
saints_chiefsfan1979 - February 16, 2012
With Zorn staying on as QB coach it's unlikely the QB play will improve
I am very disappointed RAC decided to keep Zorn as I just don’t think he’s effective.
aFan4Life - February 15, 2012
well, look what he had to work with
upamtn - February 15, 2012
they say you can actually polish a terd
but man…. what a job.
tomachop - February 15, 2012
TURD polishing was demonstrated
On Mythbusters and Adam was the polisher. He didn’t look all that pleased with his assignment.
William3rd - February 15, 2012
damn, I missed that episode?
upamtn - February 16, 2012
I saw that episode...
pretty funny…was that the same one that showed that elephants actually ARE afraid of mice?
AnkenyChiefsFan - February 16, 2012
Zorn has been terrible everywhere
I know because I’m also a Redskins fan so trust me when I tell you Zorn does not improve QB play. There’s a reason Cassel regressed and his name is Zorn.
aFan4Life - February 16, 2012
I think his name is Cassel.
Mr.Pibbs - February 16, 2012
Might have something to do with it.
Although I do like the Cassel with protection, versus the one without. If we are stuck with him, we damn well better make moves to protect Mr. Skittish.
Hateraide - February 16, 2012
Huh. Turns out all this time it was Zorn who was the problem with Cassel.
MtHammer - February 15, 2012
and all this time I thought it was because Cassel just isn't very good ;-)
upamtn - February 15, 2012
I dont think Zorn was the problem either,
but Weis sure made him look a whole lot better. I am sure having Charles there to take the heat off also helped a TON.
TheScreenName - February 15, 2012
Good writeup
You covered several topics that are nice to use as a reference to what a QB needs to be. I for one, am someone who thinks Orton has what it takes to win a super Bowl. I am not saying he could do it in the fashion Brady, Brees, Rodgers can, But with a top 5 defense(like you noted) and solid supporting cast on offense.
I think we have run are course with Cassel and if we cant bring in some other QB, I wouldnt totally hate the idea of Orton being the 2012 starter.
TheScreenName - February 15, 2012
The thing about Brady
He won his Super Bowls on the back of those good to great Patriot defenses in the early 2000’s. Brady has gone on record saying he is a better QB now then he was when he won each of the three Super Bowls. It takes an entire team to win a SB. A good QB is a part of that team, but does not define it.
JayhawksNChiefs - February 15, 2012
and as Ive mentioned many times before Brady hasnt won since he started airing it out
One other thing to consider is that regular season numbers dont show the true nature what occurred in the playoffs. I would argue that if you put up the winning Sbs teams defenses playoffs numbers against the regular season numbers and those SB winning defenses would all rise substantially
Willie Beamon - February 15, 2012
OK...to cut to the chase...
I doubt many would argue that this franchise needs to develop a superior quality QB to compete for the SB. The question is, how do we do that? Trade most of two drafts? Develop one of the less highly-touted college QB’s? Improve one of the available veteran QB’s? Acquire an aging vet for a two-year sprint for the promised land? I suspect that if we are willing to part with a tagged Carr we might get enough draft picks in hand to talk to St. Louis. The questions are, do we want to part with Carr, and is RG3 a safe pick? Maybe the simplest and surer route would be to go with Cassel, Orton, or Campbell, while developing Stanzi, or Weeden, Foles, or Tannehill (whom ever we could get in the second round). Bye the way, your #‘s are impressive. Good research. However, I also have done some research, although not as emperical as yours. I’ve studied carefully the replays of the Chiefs-Chargers game of 10/31, and the Chiefs-Packers and Chiefs-Broncs game of week 17. Regardless of the numbers you post, the visual evidence strongly suggests that Orton’s skill set is superior to Cassel’s. Also, one has to take into consideration the fact that Cassel did spend one season QBing the Pats at their near-apogee, and otherwise, neither Cassel nor Orton has had the opportunity to run a top-line offense. Hence, a comparison of their numbers with, say, Brees’ or Roger’s numbers may not be totally impartial.
Special K - February 15, 2012
Draft Brandon Weeden
If not for his age he would be a 1st rd pick, let him and Stanzi fight it out and the loser along with Cassel holds a clipboard.
Orton? You have to be kidding?
TEXAN_CHIEF - February 15, 2012
No Kidding...
…greater accuracy, more compact (thereby quicker) release, greater tendency to go through progressions (doesn’t lock on to receiver), better clutch performance. Nope. Definitely not kidding.
Special K - February 15, 2012
...and did I mention...
…doesn’t “dance” in pocket?
Special K - February 15, 2012
I could go for Orton, Stanzi/Weeden.
Start Orton and let the other two fight it out to become Orton’s replacement in due time if one of them proves better. I’m impressed with Weeden and don’t really care about his age and frankly don’t know much about Stanzi. Just a little concerned because he was not used last year. Don’t know if he is lacking in skill or it was a Haley thing.
Mr.Pibbs - February 15, 2012
Mr. P...
I havea strong tendency to lay the blame on Haley’s shoulders. Look at the job Yates did for the Texans late last season, and he was a fifth round pick.
Special K - February 15, 2012
and can I mention...
exactly the same mediocre career as Matt Cassel…..
With exactly the same potential to suddenly become more.
Texas Chief - February 15, 2012
Whoa, Dude (s?)
Am I conversing with one fan w/2 names (TEXAN_CHIEF, Texas Chief) or two fans?
Special K - February 15, 2012
nope
TEXAN_CHIEF is a blogger … Texas Chief is our very own Village Idiot Contributor who does a weekly Ramblings Of … Column
upamtn - February 15, 2012
So...
Texas is in Canada? Or is it a sister city?
12t - February 15, 2012
Texas is most certainly a "foreign country"
or should be
upamtn - February 15, 2012
Give us time
And we will secceed
TEXAN_CHIEF - February 15, 2012
secede ... and you've had years already, what's taking you so long?
upamtn - February 16, 2012
If at first you don't secede...
try, try again…
AnkenyChiefsFan - February 16, 2012
And throws an awesome interception to wide open Raiders db's in the end zone
Fumbled in the 4th qtr opening night vs the Raiders contributing to his demise in Denver. Doesnt dive for the extra inch on a 3rd down scramble. Was the qb in several total meltdowns including 59-14 in Denver. Your right, how could I have missed how awesome Kye Orton is?
TEXAN_CHIEF - February 15, 2012
lol its amazing that you think picking out every negative play thats ever happened over someone career while totally dismissing or ignoring anything good theyve done is actually stating your case
In that Raiders game he led us down the field in the 4th to tie the game and then again to give us a shot at the game winning field goal ? Are you gonna deny that that happened or say your cable went out when that happened ?
In the 4th quarter with the Broncos it was raining very badly and the ball slipped out his hand but he drove them down the field to get them to within 23-20 with nearly 4 minutes but unlike our defense who got him the ball back the broncos defense couldnt get the Raiders off the field and he never got the ball back as the raiders got 4 first downs to basically end the game.
Didnt dive as far as he you felt he should but your comments and attitude why would the guy shouldnt have even been running ? because he doesnt do anything but throw picks
He was the QB in several blowouts ?
lol cmon you seem to be going above and beyond to the point where now you seem to be more interested in distorting the facts to keep this thing going than discussing any of the actual real pros and cons of the situation .
The fact that you and a few others go out of there way to bring up the a redzone td of a qb who if Im not mistaken has one of the top active redzone td to int ratios on the league along with Brady Rivers a couple of more is baffling at this point . I dont have time to look up the numbers right now but I swear orton is something like 57tds – 4 ints or something like that in the redzone in his career . So for someone to constantly hold up that redzone pick as some sort of standard at this point is baffling to me .
Willie Beamon - February 16, 2012
Actually,
The issue has changed from, “Who is better, Cassel or Orton?” to “Does Pioli have credibility?” since he has told us fans that Cassel will have competition next year. I regard competition as Orton, Campbell, or one of the top rookies. I do not regard competition as the likes of Luke McCown, Vince Young, or Chad Henne. We’ll see what develops.
Special K - February 15, 2012
100% behind this...
He may be the best pick in the draft when all is said and done. Could be a real value guy.
12t - February 15, 2012
I agree, however I'm not sure about Young.
I’m just not ready to give up on him yet due to the talent level he could reach. And I say “could”. But maybe not. Totally agree with all others you mention.
Mr.Pibbs - February 15, 2012
Reply fail, suppose to be reply to Special K
Mr.Pibbs - February 15, 2012
The more time I have to think about it
the more I feel that the ‘competition’ for QB is going to be David Garrard :(
ExRoyalsFan - February 15, 2012
Shake it off man.
Mr.Pibbs - February 15, 2012
David Garrard=
Kyle Orton=Jason Cambell=Matt Cassel, its all the same, none are franchise qbs only patchwork. Lets throw some kids in there and see what happens, so tired of retreads, even more tired of the how awesome Kyle Orton is line.
TEXAN_CHIEF - February 15, 2012
I don't think Orton is awesome by
anyby any means, just better at some things Cassel can’t seem to grasp (finding the hot route, progressions, deep ball).
I agree with you about throwing some kids in there though (Stanzi). There’s something to be said for a little on the job training. Pioli bringin risk averseness to new heights!
CarolinaChief - February 15, 2012 via mobile
just because you dont like them does not mean they are all the same
Willie Beamon - February 16, 2012
So the conclusion is that....
….receivers, off. line, and play calling don’t matter. Only the QB stats which, by the way, reflect the play of the entire offensive unit, matter. Cassel may or may not be the guy but it might be illuminating to do a complete analysis.
Everyone happy with the play calling in year one and three? I thought it sucked.
Jazzfan - February 16, 2012
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